Basketball win probability calculator (Elo model)

Estimate a win probability from Elo or net-rating differences with home-court adjustment — methodology and limitations explained.

Team A Elo rating

Team B Elo rating

Home advantage (Elo points, 0 = neutral court)

Home teamNone (neutral)Team ATeam B

The model

Team A win probability = 1 / (1 + 10^(−(EloA − EloB + advantage)/400)). The equivalent spread uses a rough 28 Elo points per scoring point, for orientation only. Elo knows nothing about injuries, fatigue or rotations: treat the output as a starting point, never a certainty.

To see the model applied to a real tournament, every EuroBasket 2013 match page shows the pre-game probability computed only from earlier results. Team comparison