Basketball predictions: a method, not promises
Our NBA, EuroLeague and FIBA predictions are probabilities from a published model — never “sure things”. Here is how they are built.
Upcoming-game predictions will be published once our licensed data feed is connected. We do not publish probabilities without verified data.
1. A strength rating for each team
Each team carries an Elo rating updated after every game and weighted by the margin. A clear win over a strong team earns more than a narrow win over a weak one.
2. Adjustments
Home court, schedule density (NBA back-to-backs) and confirmed absences can be added — only from verified data. We always state which adjustments were applied.
3. Checking ourselves
A good model must be calibrated: across all games rated at 70%, the favourite should win about seven times in ten. We will publish calibration results alongside predictions. A worked example: every EuroBasket 2013 match page compares the pre-game probability with what actually happened.
What we will never do
- Sell “winning tips” or tipster subscriptions.
- Present a probability as a certainty.
- Invent statistics or odds.