Methodology
Historical archive
All 54 EuroBasket Women 2013 results were taken from two independent results listings and cross-checked game by game. Standings are computed from those results using the FIBA tie-break order (head-to-head wins, head-to-head point difference, head-to-head points scored, overall difference), and second-round tables include results carried over between teams from the same first-round group. The computed tables are compared automatically with the published tables; all six match exactly.
Quarter scores and player numbers
Quarter-by-quarter lines and top scorers are shown only for games where we could verify them, and each line is checked so that the quarters add up to the final score. Elsewhere we show “not available” rather than estimate.
Elo ratings and win probability
Our model starts every team at 1500 and updates after each game with K = 24 and a margin-of-victory multiplier: ln(|margin| + 1) × 2.2 / (0.001 × |Δrating| + 2.2). The expected result is 1 / (1 + 10^(−Δ/400)). Home advantage, when relevant, is added as rating points (default 60 in the calculator). Ratings computed from a single tournament rest on very few games, so they describe that tournament rather than predict the future.
Limitations
- No model accounts for injuries, rest, rotations or motivation unless those inputs are provided.
- Small samples produce wide uncertainty; a 60% probability means the other team wins about four times in ten.
- Outputs are never guarantees.
Odds maths
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. The bookmaker margin (overround) is the sum of implied probabilities minus 100%. “Fair” probabilities divide each implied probability by that sum (proportional method).